Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy
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Saw this article (while I am awake with insomnia) and thought that it was worth sharing. This has nothing to do with IT but it does show risk and should help to make people aware of how risk works. This is a risk chart for contraception methods and what their failure rate is. Notice that over a ten year period, which is not very long for a contraception method, that failure rates of some common contraception techniques approaches total failure. Not at all what people expect.
NY Times on Failure Rates of Contraceptives.
But understanding failure rates, rates over time and risk are critical to IT. Understanding what part failure rates are and what that means over system lifetimes is a huge deal. Looking at risk holistically and statistically are things that anyone dealing with IT decision making needs to understand quite well.
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There's a saying, down the throat, no kids to support!
That's my risk mitigation.
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@PSX_Defector said:
There's a saying, down the throat, no kids to support!
That's my risk mitigation.
Only you...
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18% probability of pregnancy when using condoms perfectly for a ten year period.
Hmmn. I'm very dubious of that figure. I'd like to see the source data. 18% sounds way too high to me.
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Seems high but condoms fail on a semi-regular basis, even when used correctly. I'm assuming that they include failures like falling off and ripping out.
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@scottalanmiller said:
Seems high but condoms fail on a semi-regular basis, even when used correctly. I'm assuming that they include failures like falling off and ripping out.
Not to mention they aren't used correctly a statistically significant amount of the time... I wonder if that is included in those numbers.
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@scottalanmiller said:
Seems high but condoms fail on a semi-regular basis, even when used correctly. I'm assuming that they include failures like falling off and ripping out.
Been there. Done that. Spent $50 on Plan B.
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@scottalanmiller said:
condoms fail on a semi-regular basis
If that's based on personal experience then I suggest you're either doing something wrong or you need to switch to a more expensive brand
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@coliver said:
@scottalanmiller said:
Seems high but condoms fail on a semi-regular basis, even when used correctly. I'm assuming that they include failures like falling off and ripping out.
Not to mention they aren't used correctly a statistically significant amount of the time... I wonder if that is included in those numbers.
It is supposed to be accounted for.
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Forgot about this thread, it's been a while but has a great risk analogy in it so wanted to bring it back into the limelight
Just stumbled on it while looking for something else. -
Add tags to it
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@DustinB3403 said in Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy:
Add tags to it
It has one, that's how I stumbled on it. What would good tags be for this topic?
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@scottalanmiller said in Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy:
@DustinB3403 said in Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy:
Add tags to it
It has one, that's how I stumbled on it. What would good tags be for this topic?
"oopsisploogedinsideyou"
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@scottalanmiller said in Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy:
@DustinB3403 said in Thinking About Risk Compared to Pregnancy:
Add tags to it
It has one, that's how I stumbled on it. What would good tags be for this topic?
risk tolerance,risk calculation, comparisons
