Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Yes. "Science" that word has been so abused in the last number of decades.
As far as emotion and logic go, my challenges remain unanswered from a logic perspective.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Because "Cases" and "Spike" are being used to lockdown populations while death rates have been relatively static or falling.
Now you are leaping again. Want to complain that lockdowns down make sense, argue for that. Don't claim that facts are untrue based on false information because you don't like how those facts are used by government.
Attack policy if you feel it is bad. It's easy to make a case for not locking down. But it's not easy to make a plea for us to believe that math isn't true.
Maybe we need folks talking about "Cases" and "Spikes" to explain clearly what is meant by that. Then, let's get someone to talk about virus movement through a population and how that is measured and tracked.
Pure cases is just a count in cases measured or calculated. But a spike is when the population infection rate goes up at a high rate (instead of steady change.) Right now, we have a spike because the testing is higher than before AND the positive per test is higher. This shows that we aren't testing enough to know and that the rate has to be increasing a lot to make the tests look that way.
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@JaredBusch said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Because "Cases" and "Spike" are being used to lockdown populations while death rates have been relatively static or falling.
Do you know that? Or is the news just reporting that. See post above.
See California. Draconian measures being implemented. Nevada, Ontario and Quebec Canada.
There are plenty of examples of jurisdictions locking down because "Spike".
You are incorrect, you are parroting something that is not the state policy
California specifies metrics.
https://covid19.ca.gov/state-dashboard/ -
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
As far as emotion and logic go, my challenges remain unanswered from a logic perspective.
Everything was addressed, solidly. That there is a spike has no logically counterargument. You've presented no explanation for the spike (increase in positive results per test without an associated drop in testing rate.) So I'm not sure that there's even something to respond to. You've only mentioned factors (like increased total tests) that show that there is definitely a spike, rather than any argument against it.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
Yes. "Science" that word has been so abused in the last number of decades.
By politicians.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
As far as emotion and logic go, my challenges remain unanswered from a logic perspective.
Everything was addressed, solidly. That there is a spike has no logically counterargument. You've presented no explanation for the spike (increase in positive results per test without an associated drop in testing rate.) So I'm not sure that there's even something to respond to. You've only mentioned factors (like increased total tests) that show that there is definitely a spike, rather than any argument against it.
The two measurements, that is tests and positive counts per tests still don't indicate movement.
Stating that increased positive results per group of tests states that what? That one area happens to have a higher positive count than another?
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
The two measurements, that is tests and positive counts per tests still don't indicate movement.
Stating that increased positive results per group of tests states that what? That one area happens to have a higher positive count than another?Yes, that the area of testing has a higher count than before, by a significant rate, and that's what a spike is.
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
There's been enough doubt cast around tests and their results to be cautious around any "positive test result" claimed. So, yes.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
There's been enough doubt cast around tests and their results to be cautious around any "positive test result" claimed. So, yes.
Just making sure that we are on the same page. This I don't agree with, but I buy the argument and can see the position.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
There's been enough doubt cast around tests and their results to be cautious around any "positive test result" claimed. So, yes.
Umm no there has not. PCR testing is not a new thing and has long been extremely accurate.
But to expand beyond PCR testing, even the worst initial antibody tests were reporting false negatives (not false positives). So not evenpossible to make the "rate" higher than it should be.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
There's been enough doubt cast around tests and their results to be cautious around any "positive test result" claimed. So, yes.
To lend some credence to the US/CDN position, though.... in countries that claim that there is no infection and do no testing (you know who you are) they are having similar movement and death rates to the US. It's just not being reported by politicians. There are countries where the doctors are reporting the same general type numbers as the neighbours, but with the government claiming extremely low numbers.
So in some cases where the government disagrees, the medical field says that the numbers from the US/CDN are similar to what they see.
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@JaredBusch said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
So not evenpossible to make the "rate" higher than it should be.
Other than simply lying, of course.
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@scottalanmiller Doesn't wash with me.
That's fine, but your argument doesn't wash with me. It's illogical and unfounded. It's just an emotional response that isn't based on the math or the science.
Are the tests being used to create panic? Sure, I'll agree with that. Are the tests false? No, that's a completely different thing.
Extreme example: There were Jews in Germany in 1935... fact. Hitler used this as an excuse for genocide... fact. We can't argue that Jews existed, that's simple fact. It's the horrible policy created using the aforementioned fact as a catalyst that we hate. But the fact can't be changed, and the fact didn't create the policy. The policy alone was the problem.
Re: Tests <-- How many labs have been caught publishing incorrect results?
So your claim, just to be clear, is that the tests themselves are fake and the entire multi-national healthcare response is falsified? That's far more plausible than the math not saying that there is a spike. And it's far from impossible. But it is extreme and difficult given the global nature of it. We'd expect there to be dissenting nations if this were true.
There's been enough doubt cast around tests and their results to be cautious around any "positive test result" claimed. So, yes.
To lend some credence to the US/CDN position, though.... in countries that claim that there is no infection and do no testing (you know who you are) they are having similar movement and death rates to the US. It's just not being reported by politicians. There are countries where the doctors are reporting the same general type numbers as the neighbours, but with the government claiming extremely low numbers.
So in some cases where the government disagrees, the medical field says that the numbers from the US/CDN are similar to what they see.
COVID is real. At least that's what I think is being implied here?
As far as death rates go, CDC has been revising their numbers consistently since February/March. The trend is always downward.
Comorbidity. That's a word I knew nothing about prior to all of this.
Death count in the US is skewed by five democrat governors mandating COVID+ back into the most vulnerable populations in Long Term Care.
Here in Alberta, over 50% of our COVID reported deaths were in two long term care facilities.
There's no doubt about the bug being real.
How it was handled on the other hand, is unreal.
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@PhlipElder : You're correct about the age demographic of deaths here in Canada -- and likely in many parts of the world.
Here's some info from Health Canada : https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
The numbers show that I'm VERY unlikely to die, but have about a 10% chance of ending up in the ICU. Granted 10% is low but that's way better than lottery odds.BUT, I don't believe that the issue/fear is about "death" specifically, but about the long term effects of Covid. Having spoken with individuals who "recovered" from Covid, along with numerous articles and posts online, there are a large number of those that are experiencing health issues many months later.
Some are relatively minor (fatigue), others not so much (respiratory issues).Canada is currently at 10k deaths for a population of approximately 35M
The US is at 200k deaths for a population of 350M.
While the case per 100k then differ by a fair margin, bear in mind that we're almost entirely "middle class" in Canada and have access to free health care all of the time.
If we had the issue of hoards of low income families who couldn't afford to pay for their healthcare, we'd be in a MUCH worse state I'm sure...P.S. These so-called "draconian" practices aren't to protect you -- we don't care about you -- it's to protect me and those that I care about. I care about them!
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@manxam said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@PhlipElder : You're correct about the age demographic of deaths here in Canada -- and likely in many parts of the world.
Here's some info from Health Canada : https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
The numbers show that I'm VERY unlikely to die, but have about a 10% chance of ending up in the ICU. Granted 10% is low but that's way better than lottery odds.BUT, I don't believe that the issue/fear is about "death" specifically, but about the long term effects of Covid. Having spoken with individuals who "recovered" from Covid, along with numerous articles and posts online, there are a large number of those that are experiencing health issues many months later.
Some are relatively minor (fatigue), others not so much (respiratory issues).Canada is currently at 10k deaths for a population of approximately 35M
The US is at 200k deaths for a population of 350M.
While the case per 100k then differ by a fair margin, bear in mind that we're almost entirely "middle class" in Canada and have access to free health care all of the time.
If we had the issue of hoards of low income families who couldn't afford to pay for their healthcare, we'd be in a MUCH worse state I'm sure...P.S. These so-called "draconian" practices aren't to protect you -- we don't care about you -- it's to protect me and those that I care about. I care about them!
Point: ~40% of the US deaths are in the five states I indicated in long term care.
Point: Our health care is not free it is extremely costly and a lot less efficient than the US one. We could get medical services in the US by calling the specialist within a few days. We've been waiting half a year or more just to get a referral. Our system is bloated and poorly run.
Point: Any family whose kids go to school know that a bug runs through the family in September and then again when they go back to school in January. So, what about that? Where were the "protection steps" then? Bugs run through families at least twice a year but we seem to have forgotten about that.
Point: Flu status/deaths have done what since COVID?
Point: Long term impact of any bug is? There are well documented stats on this too.
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@PhlipElder said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
Until the companies making vaccines have their indemnity removed there ain't no way we'll be anywhere near one of them.
Don't believe everything you read as far as "experts" go either.
"Cases" "Spiking" have nothing to do with virus movement through a population as is being inferred. That's a lie. It just means more testing with test results being positive.
Yeah - it's impossible to know what to trust anymore - there is so much information all from seeming experts...
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@JaredBusch said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
@Dashrender said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
So, with that in mind - does a vaccine even matter? Does that mean needing a vaccine every 3-6 months to maintain any type of defense? Just imagine the cost of that thing!!
The point of a vacaine is to inform the body long term. A vaccine is not simply the natural antibody response.
Whether it is a yearly or a one time does not matter, yes a vaccine matters.
And any improvement is still improvement. Now if they fell to zero in an hour, that would suck. But falling by 90% over a year.... well it is still a big deal.
A common mistake is looking for perfection and giving up on anything less. Just because a solution isn't a perfect one, doesn't imply it's not the best one.
We want to do what's best, not what's perfect.
This is why I asked the question - The flu vaccine is anything but perfect.. but it's still likely a good idea.... so a yearly or even 6 month vaccine for Covid19 would likely be good for keeping more people alive.
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@scottalanmiller said in Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection':
Also, regardless of cases or testing, that hospitals are at record capacity is more important and is the real spike that matters and is completely unable to be explained away with fake news sound bites.
What I find interesting - hospitals are at record levels (i.e. higher than last march and april) yet no shutdowns...
