Is Texas Next?
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
Exactly - I was going to ask - Is the government spending on infrastructure?
We are closing our local nuclear power plant - I expect us to have power issues and HUGE spikes in power costs any time now.
No... we have an entire group of people who think that reducing spending will improve the economy. So that prevent them from supporting bills that would introduce infrastructure jobs to replace and repair our failing systems. I'm not saying that all spending is good, although there has been some evidence to support it, just that we know spending on infrastructure has a high rate of return when compared to other spending.
Right. If they actually spent money to fix and create new roads/power/etc then that'd be great, but they never do (even when the budget specifies funds for it.)
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
It really isn't new. The new way of thinking is that we shouldn't spend money and instead pay down on debt regardless of the actual utility of it. We've know that infrastructure and debt spending have been important to the economy since the early 1800's and maybe a bit earlier. Other nations have known it long before that.
But we just keep on borrowing - I really don't understand why we keep borrowing more and more - there will reach a point when we can't pay it back, I sorta understand the spending on infrastructure is good for the economy, but at the cost of continuing to pay out debtors, like China? When do we stop the bleeding? I seriously don't understand this situation at all.
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
It really isn't new. The new way of thinking is that we shouldn't spend money and instead pay down on debt regardless of the actual utility of it. We've know that infrastructure and debt spending have been important to the economy since the early 1800's and maybe a bit earlier. Other nations have known it long before that.
But we just keep on borrowing - I really don't understand why we keep borrowing more and more - there will reach a point when we can't pay it back, I sorta understand the spending on infrastructure is good for the economy, but at the cost of continuing to pay out debtors, like China? When do we stop the bleeding? I seriously don't understand this situation at all.
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
China owns relatively little of our debt. That vast majority is held by US citizens.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
It really isn't new. The new way of thinking is that we shouldn't spend money and instead pay down on debt regardless of the actual utility of it. We've know that infrastructure and debt spending have been important to the economy since the early 1800's and maybe a bit earlier. Other nations have known it long before that.
But we just keep on borrowing - I really don't understand why we keep borrowing more and more - there will reach a point when we can't pay it back, I sorta understand the spending on infrastructure is good for the economy, but at the cost of continuing to pay out debtors, like China? When do we stop the bleeding? I seriously don't understand this situation at all.
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
Well, new aircraft carriers are damn expensive [link1, link2] ...
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
How's the advertising over there compared to over here, Scott? I think of of the things that drives the crime sprees here is that our advertising drives people to think they don't have enough, they aren't good enough where they are. That whole thing where companies are trying to squeeze every last cent out of the spending public.
Is that the case there?
What kind of people do you think are committing crimes? It's not middle class workers that want a new materialistic thing that they can't afford. It's people who got addicted to drugs and are feeding their demons with every item they can pawn for cash to score more drugs. Along with people who are homeless and can't even beg for enough money to pay for stuff. Push someone to the edge of desperation; have them question if they'll survive unless they harm you, and you'll see the animal inside of them.
I've noticed you mentioning homeless people before. Is that really that big of a problem over at your place? Can't really imagine that, because we have a rather powerful social system. Everyone, virtually everyone, will get some place to sleep or even some small apartment, at least the most important things (very basic things like a toothbrush, soap, towels, something to eat, clothes, ...), healthcare (or help on getting away from drugs) and this way a real chance to get back into "normal" life.
Yeah it's pretty bad on the west coast. I haven't been on the east coast or the south very much but it is extremely problematic. When you get that many homeless in an area, especially around middle and upper class citizens, there is a kind of resentment when you interact with many of them. Also the "steal from the rich and give to the poor" mentality comes out, where people who wouldn't normally steal, start to do so because they think the middle and upper class can afford to lose certain things off their property.
Homeless people as a social behavior aren't the problem, it's when you put a desperate person in a situation where they can take what they need, because to them it is a life or death situation. If they don't assault you and take material items that they can sell for money to buy food and water (anything else like drugs or alcohol aside), then that is survival. It's the wildly aggressive homeless that are a problem, and it becomes more of a problem if you run across some that are high or intoxicated, especially at night in dimly lit areas that should be avoided.
There are shelters and programs, especially in really big places like Seattle. But they often get overrun and people stand in lines for many blocks. A lot of them don't get in, or can't get fed because there simply aren't enough supplies or beds available for the night. To rotate people, they will kick you out for the day to stand in line for another bed. You might not get one the next night.
There are some other REALLY great programs to help people find work, get them into affordable housing, and help rehabilitate them from drugs and alcohol, but it's a societal struggle because when you help 1,000 people, you may have another 1,000 that are newly addicted, unemployed, and their house foreclosed so they're on the streets.
Thanks for getting back. I was afraid a bit that you could take that personally what I wrote. Anyway.
I knew that the USA got a next to non-existing social system and that there are at least 633,782 homeless people and probably many, many more. That's completely different here in good ol' Germany: "Hinz & Kunzt" (1) - an INSP (International Network of Street Papers) newspaper sold by homeless with the idea behind to get them some (extra) income - stated back in 02/2013 that there are at least 1,029 Homeless people in Germany's second largest City of Hamburg (estimated 1,77 Mio ppl, 5,05 Mio with surrounding areas according to Wikipedia).
What's the point of all those numbers? Maybe we care about others. Sure, there are still people who are homeless, but I guess that's more kind of a lifestyle or to "fight the system". Anyway, if you take a look at the German constitution, you'll find this in the very first article:
Article 1
[Human dignity – Human rights – Legally binding force of basic rights]-
Human dignity shall be inviolable. To respect and protect it shall be the duty of all state authority.
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The German people therefore acknowledge inviolable and inalienable human rights as the basis of every community, of peace and of justice in the world.
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The following basic rights shall bind the legislature, the executive and the judiciary as directly applicable law.
Source: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_gg/englisch_gg.html#p0015
There are more detailled laws that define what that means, for example the amount of money you'll get per month or what "dignity" means in detail (a roof over your head, for example). Here's some good post about that: https://www.quora.com/How-does-Germany-deal-with-the-homeless-and-the-poor
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
No worries. I've saw you post enough on here that I have a fairly decent handle on your demeanor to know you don't mean anything by what you say. Just genuinely curious is all. Aside from that, I'm also very level headed so it takes quite a bit to get me worked up. I'm always up for a good healthy conversation about controversial topics.
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
Greece shot itself in the foot. They had a staggering amount of international debt, something the US doesn't really have, and when they did receive a bailout, after decades of lying about their debt load to GDP (deficit), they spent it on repaying international debt instead of attempting to start a recovery at home, some of this was the EUs fault due to the terms of the bailout, but most the blame lies with Greek policy makers.
I'm not so sure how debt has anything to do with the UK's current and future issues. Anything that happens in the near term, and long term, will most likely be a result of the Brexit vote.
I'm not an expert on EU politics or economy. I'm sure others (@scottalanmiller or @thwr) will correct me on the points I got incorrect.
The US on the other hand has seen month over month economic growth for, I want to say, the last two or three years, at the same time our debt load as a percent of GDP, which is arguably more important then overall debt, has been going down steadily since 2009. We're not in as dire straights as the media and politicians will have you believe.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
Another reason there isn't as many homeless in the mid-west is the same reason that hitchhiking through there is virtually impossible. A study was done on HH through that region, and found that people to be picked up were much less than anywhere else, especially on the west coast (this also takes into account other variables like it being illegal). The study mostly covered if it was a legal state, are you getting picked up. Overall, people were very hesitant to let a stranger into a confined space where there was an issue with escaping the situation. If you're in a bar talking to a stranger, you could simply run out if there was trouble. But in a vehicle, they could grab the wheel, killing both of you, you'd have to fight them while you try and slow the vehicle to a stop, take your seat belt off, open your door, exit the vehicle, and shut the door to provide a barrier between you and them. That's a lot to handle in a situation that YOU put yourself in. People in the mid-west are more reserved with nomads so they typically avoid them. With a complete disregard for nomads, comes a sense of "don't travel there, nobody will pick you up or give hand outs", so the homeless and hitchhiking population goes down.
If you're somewhere like Nebraska, then home invasions and car jackings would be fairly low. It's just not a state that is prone to stuff like that because of the kind of population that is there. A lot of working class and middle class workers, overall a lot of employed individuals. When money is coming in, crime goes down.
That's my take on it anyway, FWIW.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
I knew that the USA got a next to non-existing social system and that there are...
That stuff is super misleading, though. There are definitely desperate homeless all over wondering how they will eat. But having lived in Newark and getting to know the majority that lived near me including often taking them out to eat and hanging out in the park with them... they actually pitied me as the rich Wall St. worker who had to actually work every day. They said that they felt that their lives were way better than mine.
So it is all perspective. They didn't see themselves as missing out, they felt that they were making a smart choice to not have to do a job that they didn't like just to have things that they didn't need (like shelter beyond a sleeping bag or whatever.) It was a conscious decision in many cases.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
I knew that the USA got a next to non-existing social system and that there are...
That stuff is super misleading, though. There are definitely desperate homeless all over wondering how they will eat. But having lived in Newark and getting to know the majority that lived near me including often taking them out to eat and hanging out in the park with them... they actually pitied me as the rich Wall St. worker who had to actually work every day. They said that they felt that their lives were way better than mine.
So it is all perspective. They didn't see themselves as missing out, they felt that they were making a smart choice to not have to do a job that they didn't like just to have things that they didn't need (like shelter beyond a sleeping bag or whatever.) It was a conscious decision in many cases.
Like I said before, some may have chossen that path. Most did not, I guess.
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Yes, it is very much an American thing to be fixated on national debt. The US has that debt intentionally, not accidentally. It is there for strategic economic reasons.
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@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
It's not the "new" way, it is the only way until politicians started marketing the debt as a fear tactic to non-economists. The idea that debt was good was established in the first years of our country under Hamilton and it has been a huge part of what has empowered the American economy for centuries. It's only new to let the general public think about it and attempt to undermine the guiding hand of the central bank.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
Like I said before, some may have chossen that path. Most did not, I guess.
From my small anecdotal evidence... nearly all chose the path. In a country with jobs available, there aren't too many that are homeless without options. Not saying that our social support system isn't lacking, but we do have support systems for this and they do tend to work. My MIL is in that job role and they don't let people go homeless that don't want to be.
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@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
Another reason there isn't as many homeless in the mid-west is the same reason that hitchhiking through there is virtually impossible. A study was done on HH through that region, and found that people to be picked up were much less than anywhere else, especially on the west coast (this also takes into account other variables like it being illegal). The study mostly covered if it was a legal state, are you getting picked up. Overall, people were very hesitant to let a stranger into a confined space where there was an issue with escaping the situation. If you're in a bar talking to a stranger, you could simply run out if there was trouble. But in a vehicle, they could grab the wheel, killing both of you, you'd have to fight them while you try and slow the vehicle to a stop, take your seat belt off, open your door, exit the vehicle, and shut the door to provide a barrier between you and them. That's a lot to handle in a situation that YOU put yourself in. People in the mid-west are more reserved with nomads so they typically avoid them. With a complete disregard for nomads, comes a sense of "don't travel there, nobody will pick you up or give hand outs", so the homeless and hitchhiking population goes down.
If you're somewhere like Nebraska, then home invasions and car jackings would be fairly low. It's just not a state that is prone to stuff like that because of the kind of population that is there. A lot of working class and middle class workers, overall a lot of employed individuals. When money is coming in, crime goes down.
That's my take on it anyway, FWIW.
Hitchhiking has been shown to be incredibly safe and all of that fear is just people who aren't educated. The passenger is at far more risk than the driver. They are the captives. It is nearly impossible to take over a moving car because the driver has too much control. They can crash the car at will, turn it over, go faster, slower, drive to the police station, get the cops to chase them, go the wrong way... they have too much power. Only someone with a death wish hitchhikes to threaten someone. And stats show that it simply doesn't happen.
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
The previously discussed thinking differences makes it much more likely to be safe in Europe than in the US, at least in first world Europe.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
