How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?
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I just do all of my mining with the equipment at work...
/sarcasm
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Few thoughts on the subject:
I think cyrpto currencies and blockchain tech is super interesting, and has many exciting use cases. However, forget the history of the tulip mania and the south sea bubble, I hesitate from the idea of investing in currency exchange speculation or storing value with cryto currencies, because for me, the economic risk-weighted-return may not be worth it. Crypto currencies have a benefit, such as, a tech in a decentralized transactional system, but as a vehicle to store value, not so sure.
It could be problematic treating tech as an investing commodity like this, because the commodity itself is based on abstractions of current knowledge. The problem with storing long-term value in abstractions of current knowledge, is what do you do when new knowledge in or new solutions are found?
For example, in computational complexity theory, if the problem of “P vs NP” were solved, there would be huge issues for encryption as we know it. Transactional systems could just change to other methods to secure the transactions, however, static monetary value, validated with encryption, may have much more serious issues once the math used no longer can be relied upon.
Just a thought...
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I believe that everything that happens is in the order of things. Cryptocurrency will flourish and strengthen. Just in case if you have a cryptocurrency and you want to withdraw it, you can use a [redacted] to make a secure transfer where you need it!
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0 is the answer, eventually. Could be 1 year from now, 5 years from now, 20 years from now, etc.
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@Harry-Lui said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
0 is the answer, eventually. Could be 1 year from now, 5 years from now, 20 years from now, etc.
That's a true statement. With the exception of precious metals, every currency will eventually be 0.
As I've spent more time in crypto, I've realized that crypto and fiat are both ponzi schemes. Both are subject to extreme manipulation. Investment wise they could be profitable, but at the end of day it's dependent on governments and central banks to say tis particular paper or this particular crypto is valuable.
I still like to trade with crypto and do it almost on a daily basis. I do shorts because I cannot see long term value anymore and I only play with what I can afford to lose.
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The thing that I do really enjoy about crypto is I am able to control my funds and make my own decisions whether I have $50, 500, 5k, or 50k. The stock market is rigged in favor of big guys.
I spent alot of time in crypto trading $10-50 and learned alot! I was able to be extremely profitable in a year where most people lost their shirt. I ended up with about 500% total in gains this year! Not that I had alot of money in crypto at any one point. Maybe around $1500 at most, and under $500 most of the time.
I was fortunate enough to take a fiat out with each gain so I am all smiles while there is alot of gnashing of teeth.
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@IRJ said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@Harry-Lui said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
0 is the answer, eventually. Could be 1 year from now, 5 years from now, 20 years from now, etc.
That's a true statement. With the exception of precious metals, every currency will eventually be 0.
Precious metals are the same. Only precious because we randomly say so. It's so arbitrary to associate some metals as having crazy value. Almost identical to paper money. It's worth a lot, only because someone says so.
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@scottalanmiller said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@IRJ said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@Harry-Lui said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
0 is the answer, eventually. Could be 1 year from now, 5 years from now, 20 years from now, etc.
That's a true statement. With the exception of precious metals, every currency will eventually be 0.
Precious metals are the same. Only precious because we randomly say so. It's so arbitrary to associate some metals as having crazy value. Almost identical to paper money. It's worth a lot, only because someone says so.
That runs contrary to the terrible logic of metal backed currencies though, such as claims that gold/silver/whatever has always had value to mankind/been precious which is #1 not true and #2 not universal, this lack of seeing gold as super precious, rare, and valuable was one of the ways the Spanish got over on the Natives of South America.
Nevertheless, metals do have value in that they have industrial use. It's extraordinarily primitive and backward to hoard it to put another currency in front if it, and ironically, that doesn't stop inflation or any other problems, both the arbitrary price change in the value of metals hurting the currency and over printing of currency which happens every time metal backed currency is in use. The reason is because there's far more value in the world than there are precious metals to back them unless you arbitrary pretend even more so that the metals are worth more than they really are. This didn't work for Spain when tons of gold flooded in and it sure doesn't work for rapidly expanding industrial economies of today.
Plus the weird idea that Steven Schiff kept pushing was "bitcoin will never be used because it's not backed by anything," which is like saying the US Dollar won't be used because of Nixon finally removing any metal backing it had. He promotes extremely pre-capitalist views of monetary policy. Under such a nightmare of gold backed dollar you'll have cars and milk either having the same value or having to create new micro-cent values to deal with the fact there's vastly far more value than metal. This in addition to any industrial purpose gold, silver, etc have will be basically removed and the available uses will be so expensive as to cause the average person to not be able to afford items with it, and interest rates will explode because nobody will want to loan due to the hugely retracting value vs currency.
If you want a monetary system fiat is the only way to go. How you manage it is a totally different story, there's no reason to suggest that Keynesian economics is linked with it, even though that's a leap often made to a crazy degree.
I just think about the mad over pricing of gold some years ago, if the currency were backed by gold at that time, the purchasing value of it would have gone up, until gold prices went down either the banking system would have to pretend it didn't happen which is extremely dangerous or they would have to retract value of everything in return.
As for bitcoin and other coins go, yeah people pump and dump and the instability basically makes it a casino, but that's not what most people I know, including myself use it for, it's used to near-instantly convert currency and/or purchase things, and very little time is spent as bitcoin. I never would keep any more stable hard currency as bitcoin. I think people in the west often lack the experience of dealing with two currencies at the same time, one stable and one unstable, the idea that one which is unstable is useless or a scam is missing its use, especially when it comes to dealing with states (governments) and grey/black markets. There's also black market currency values as well but that's not really relevant to bitcoin.
I remember a time when depending on what items you bought or services rendered, you paid either in a hard currency (typically USD, later also EUR, sometimes GBP) or just regular currency (like roubles or whatever). The services and items aren't the same anymore, but the double use is plenty useful. Perhaps bitcoin won't last into the future in the same way, but it or something else like it will continue to exist much like p2p or torrents in order to deal with both legal and illegal exchanges of money, and sometimes it's not illegal because of illict drugs or crime, but because of dictatorships, because of embargoes, and so on.
... I was kind of all over the place there.
tl;dr the rise and fall of the price doesn't matter with bitcoin so long as you are just using it as a way to quickly convert currency either to move money or buy items/services otherwise unavailable. If you sit on it, it's basically like playing slot machines.
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I like that analysis Tony
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@tonyshowoff said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
As for bitcoin and other coins go, yeah people pump and dump and the instability basically makes it a casino, but that's not what most people I know, including myself use it for, it's used to near-instantly convert currency and/or purchase things, and very little time is spent as bitcoin. I never would keep any more stable hard currency as bitcoin. I think people in the west often lack the experience of dealing with two currencies at the same time, one stable and one unstable, the idea that one which is unstable is useless or a scam is missing its use, especially when it comes to dealing with states (governments) and grey/black markets. There's also black market currency values as well but that's not really relevant to bitcoin.
:thumbs_up:
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I think the better question would be when is bitcoin not worth it for miners to mine anymore.
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@Harry-Lui said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
I think the better question would be when is bitcoin not worth it for miners to mine anymore.
In many cases it already is - a person at my gym has several hundred miners. They are all turned off right now. Power costs are higher than income currently (which is odd considering cooling is near free right now).
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@Harry-Lui said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
I think the better question would be when is bitcoin not worth it for miners to mine anymore.
For a business that time has already come. For an individual who is playing the speculation game, it may still be something they might do.
Just like everything else in tech, there is a business side and a tinkering side. The tinkers will operate a loss for a while since it is a hobby and they are playing the long speculation game. Some companies may also be willing to take the risk. Although, I would assume that they would do it at a smaller scale when unprofitable vs profitable.
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@IRJ I can only think about this guy I read about who invested a 100k in mining equipment and was doing it full time
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The BIGGEST problem with crypto and bitcoin is the fake volume. When you spend a ton of time in exchanges every day, you realize 98% of the volume in many exchanges is fake. Which means the value is inflated. What we saw in late 2017 / early 2018 had real volume and created a real price increase. The problem with a 80% drop in value is that you are going to lose traders and ALOT of them. So many people kept buying down and literally have a fraction of what they had before. If you bought alts it was even worse.
So fake volume became very prevalent in many exchanges. Now this isnt much different than the stock market other than central bankers / government officials dont have same level of control that they do in the stock market or forex markets. Since they write those rules.
All that being said, I feel like there is a real chance that a crypto currency could become mainstream someday. It definitely wont be 1500-2000 of them like are listed on Coinmarketcap. I also believe the winner may not even be bitcoin. Which menas the majority will be worth zero one day.
I could of treat crypto like hot potato at the moment. Get in and get out. Observe how the waves roll and just ride them for short periods of time. Things are more predictable than one may think (in the short term).
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@jmoore said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@IRJ I can only think about this guy I read about who invested a 100k in mining equipment and was doing it full time
When everyone is doing something like they were one year ago...it is usually time to do the opposite. Following the herd always leads to the slaughter.
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@IRJ said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@jmoore said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@IRJ I can only think about this guy I read about who invested a 100k in mining equipment and was doing it full time
When everyone is doing something like they were one year ago...it is usually time to do the opposite. Following the herd always leads to the slaughter.
Yeah, leading the crowd can make money. Bucking the trends can make money. Following the herd always results in plunging over a cliff.
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@scottalanmiller Wow. It was $600 or so last time I looked. I'll stick with real businesses to invest in, someone that does something and makes money.
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@jmoore said in How far will bitcoin and other cryptos fall?:
@scottalanmiller Wow. It was $600 or so last time I looked. I'll stick with real businesses to invest in, someone that does something and makes money.
Remember... currencies are not investments. It's just different cash. You'd never say that you were "investing in Canadian dollars" or "investing in pesos". In some ways, everything is an investment, I get it. But nothing is "less" investment than cash and Etherium is a form of cash. It's the farthest thing from an investment that you can do with money.
