Buying vs Saving Economic Theory
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I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work economically. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
If this is true then I think creative pursuits will become hugely important.
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@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I tend to think the second is more likely the case, at least for many hundreds of years. I feel this way because we just have to look at the nightly news, listen to the radio, etc - they are all covered in stories of bad things, with a minor sprinkling of good news.
Now I'll admit that the perception of more bad vs good news might be a bias I unintentionally bring to the table - that my personally might dwell more on the bad than than the good - but then I look at so many conversations, both overheard and participated and again, they seem to drift more toward the negative.
The flaw here is to assume that "change" and "intentionally improving things" will cause bad things to happen and that "status quo" and "not intentionally improving things" will not cause bad things to happen. No matter if you are an optimist or a pessimist, you are making an illogical connection. No matter how much you think that bad things will happen, that doesn't imply that attempting to do better than not to do better while make them worse than the alternative.
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@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
That's why I used them as examples
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BBC has demonstrated the replacement for chefs now. You can't tell me that McD's isn't ready to pull the trigger on automated burger and fry cooking. I proposed that twenty years ago when I worked managing fast food, even then we know that it was all going to be trivially automated at a fraction of the cost, risk and problems of people.
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
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@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
Most economists have already realized that and many are pushing for a UBI. The US was moving in that direction, albeit slowly, but recent events may have changed that.
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@coliver said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
Most economists have already realized that and many are pushing for a UBI. The US was moving in that direction, albeit slowly, but recent events may have changed that.
That would make sense
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
It's really hard to think that 98% of humans not offering anything of real value to the world. Sure you can argue that arts and humanitarian efforts have value, but many will disagree with you.
Whoa, did you just equate economic development to human value? I certainly said the opposite and talked about how they'd be free to stop wasting time and pursue valuable things like art, leisure, research, assisting others and other things more important than economic growth.
No I didn't but people do - but you addressed that in the previous post. Today, many people don't put any value in art and leisure. I think most do believe that research has value. That leaves assisting others on your list, I'm guessing it's 50/50 on it's value if people could answer without reprisal.
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@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
When unemployment rises significantly. I expect Trump to force a lot of manufacturing to return to the US and then people will be surprised that they still haven't got a job because US manufacturers will just develop robots. I'm not sure we're far away from Apple manufacturing iPhone's entirely in the US using robots are we? Then people will go, "oh, what now?"
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
Instead of a wonderful world of not working and doing whatever you want. I'm reminded of two movies - Wall-e where all of the people became lazy fat people in their floaty chairs or the Matrix when Mr Smith was explaining to Neo that the first edition of the Matrix was a perfect world, but people's brains refused to accept it - they kept waking up.
Don't let pop culture determine your economics. And if anything, wouldn't the opposite happen? Work keeps us from exercising and learning. Do all retired people just stop existing? No, most do more than before they retired because now they can do things that they care about. And that's for people who are older. Imagine the same effect on younger people!
is that true? I hear - though I don't know the study based numbers - that the majority die within 5 years of retirement - mostly because of lack of motivation.
I'm not saying that this whole self worth through today's work isn't something we can't overcome, I'm just saying it will take a Long time.
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@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
There are not enough jobs now. A huge portion, and I mean enormous, is government enforced welfare but with careful marketing to make it seem otherwise. Think about how many jobs can be trivially automated and would be faster, cheaper and safer than they are today; but because of government regulations people stand around doing the job of a robot poorly - every one of those is a form of welfare, the worst form because they are a drain on our economy more than someone sitting at home, often control critical parts of the infrastructure and do things like commute, pollute, etc.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
When unemployment rises significantly. I expect Trump to force a lot of manufacturing to return to the US and then people will be surprised that they still haven't got a job because US manufacturers will just develop robots. I'm not sure we're far away from Apple manufacturing iPhone's entirely in the US using robots are we? Then people will go, "oh, what now?"
There will be a point in human history where we have forgotten how to read and write. Someone will be sick and one of us apes will burn a book that contained the knowledge to save that person.
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@coliver said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
I think robotics will take away a lot of jobs, eventually forcing a change in the way we view jobs or work. I think a lot of the highly educated positions will most likely exist for much longer, but a janitor, taxi driver, cashier, etc will probably not exist for much longer.
Already tons of places cashier is gone. Janitors are already phasing out. Taxi driver we know when that will go away, Tesla already has their replacements driving on the streets.
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
Most economists have already realized that and many are pushing for a UBI. The US was moving in that direction, albeit slowly, but recent events may have changed that.
Because the economy might collapse?
Actually it might be going that way faster as the US is now narrowly focused on bringing specifically automation jobs back to US soil and sending the ones requiring human capital abroad. -
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
Instead of a wonderful world of not working and doing whatever you want. I'm reminded of two movies - Wall-e where all of the people became lazy fat people in their floaty chairs or the Matrix when Mr Smith was explaining to Neo that the first edition of the Matrix was a perfect world, but people's brains refused to accept it - they kept waking up.
Don't let pop culture determine your economics. And if anything, wouldn't the opposite happen? Work keeps us from exercising and learning. Do all retired people just stop existing? No, most do more than before they retired because now they can do things that they care about. And that's for people who are older. Imagine the same effect on younger people!
is that true? I hear - though I don't know the study based numbers - that the majority die within 5 years of retirement - mostly because of lack of motivation.
I'm not saying that this whole self worth through today's work isn't something we can't overcome, I'm just saying it will take a Long time.
Lack of motivation is a type of disease now? Didn't know that was a thing I assumed it was because American's are insanely unhealthy and tend to die sooner because of heart disease attributed to weight.
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@Carnival-Boy said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
When unemployment rises significantly. I expect Trump to force a lot of manufacturing to return to the US and then people will be surprised that they still haven't got a job because US manufacturers will just develop robots. I'm not sure we're far away from Apple manufacturing iPhone's entirely in the US using robots are we? Then people will go, "oh, what now?"
There was a study done on that, probably BBC, that showed that he was specifically targeting sectors that use essentially zero humans for manufacturing so that there would be no job creation, only the rich on top getting richer and more middle class getting poorer.
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Carnival-Boy said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
At what point will we realize we can't have a normal economy anymore because there are actually not enough jobs due to automation? I wonder how bad it's going to need to be.
When unemployment rises significantly. I expect Trump to force a lot of manufacturing to return to the US and then people will be surprised that they still haven't got a job because US manufacturers will just develop robots. I'm not sure we're far away from Apple manufacturing iPhone's entirely in the US using robots are we? Then people will go, "oh, what now?"
There was a study done on that, probably BBC, that showed that he was specifically targeting sectors that use essentially zero humans for manufacturing so that there would be no job creation, only the rich on top getting richer and more middle class getting poorer.
What bringing back low paying manufacturing jobs that can be easily automated doesn't result in a middle class income? Say it isn't so. /s
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@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
Instead of a wonderful world of not working and doing whatever you want. I'm reminded of two movies - Wall-e where all of the people became lazy fat people in their floaty chairs or the Matrix when Mr Smith was explaining to Neo that the first edition of the Matrix was a perfect world, but people's brains refused to accept it - they kept waking up.
Don't let pop culture determine your economics. And if anything, wouldn't the opposite happen? Work keeps us from exercising and learning. Do all retired people just stop existing? No, most do more than before they retired because now they can do things that they care about. And that's for people who are older. Imagine the same effect on younger people!
is that true? I hear - though I don't know the study based numbers - that the majority die within 5 years of retirement - mostly because of lack of motivation.
Um, who have you ever heard of dying from lack of motivation that wasn't so old that they couldn't get around? What about work motivates people, you think that people stay alive just so that they can hate life and the moment it doesn't such they give up and die? I think you'll find they die because they are exhausted, don't have enough saved up for retirement and are old.
Plus you can't really compare it, retired people in America struggle to figure out what to do with free time. We don't train people for that moment.
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@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
Instead of a wonderful world of not working and doing whatever you want. I'm reminded of two movies - Wall-e where all of the people became lazy fat people in their floaty chairs or the Matrix when Mr Smith was explaining to Neo that the first edition of the Matrix was a perfect world, but people's brains refused to accept it - they kept waking up.
Don't let pop culture determine your economics. And if anything, wouldn't the opposite happen? Work keeps us from exercising and learning. Do all retired people just stop existing? No, most do more than before they retired because now they can do things that they care about. And that's for people who are older. Imagine the same effect on younger people!
is that true? I hear - though I don't know the study based numbers - that the majority die within 5 years of retirement - mostly because of lack of motivation.
Um, who have you ever heard of dying from lack of motivation that wasn't so old that they couldn't get around? What about work motivates people, you think that people stay alive just so that they can hate life and the moment it doesn't such they give up and die? I think you'll find they die because they are exhausted, don't have enough saved up for retirement and are old.
Plus you can't really compare it, retired people in America struggle to figure out what to do with free time. We don't train people for that moment.
I think people do lose their purpose but then you have to ask yourself why their job was their purpose to begin with
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@wirestyle22 said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@scottalanmiller said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
@Dashrender said in Buying vs Saving Economic Theory:
Instead of a wonderful world of not working and doing whatever you want. I'm reminded of two movies - Wall-e where all of the people became lazy fat people in their floaty chairs or the Matrix when Mr Smith was explaining to Neo that the first edition of the Matrix was a perfect world, but people's brains refused to accept it - they kept waking up.
Don't let pop culture determine your economics. And if anything, wouldn't the opposite happen? Work keeps us from exercising and learning. Do all retired people just stop existing? No, most do more than before they retired because now they can do things that they care about. And that's for people who are older. Imagine the same effect on younger people!
is that true? I hear - though I don't know the study based numbers - that the majority die within 5 years of retirement - mostly because of lack of motivation.
Um, who have you ever heard of dying from lack of motivation that wasn't so old that they couldn't get around? What about work motivates people, you think that people stay alive just so that they can hate life and the moment it doesn't such they give up and die? I think you'll find they die because they are exhausted, don't have enough saved up for retirement and are old.
Plus you can't really compare it, retired people in America struggle to figure out what to do with free time. We don't train people for that moment.
I think people do lose their purpose but then you have to ask yourself why their job was their purpose to begin with
Right, it turns out that they never had purpose but just weren't old enough to die yet.
