Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee
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@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
my comment about a replacement car being an hour + away was not about how good self driving cars are/can be... it was in response to your - a replacement car is only mins away.. yeah not likely mins, when traveling between major cities is more likely an hour+.
Of course compared to the current breakdown situation between major cities.. that hour is probably fine, etc, etc...
Self driving still wins.
Even there my guess is that it would rarely take anywhere near an hour. Think about all the idle cars all over the place today. Sure, in the driverless world we will have a lot fewer cars overall (making the whole thing that much cheaper) but even so, every few houses would be assigned one, no matter how remote. So if you were driving through the most desolate part of the country you'd only have a few places in the entire country with actual "hour plus" gaps between people and only places with roads would be an issue and if there were roads, idle cars could be staged in the middle to maintain generally fast repair times.
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@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender Why do you think it would still be an hour or more away though? Why wouldn't the car notice the issue, and report the issue that instant, and then that instant another vehicle that meets the existing needs of the one your in rushes out to pick you up?
You have to assume meteor accident (total destruction, zero warning.) So no way to "prep" another car other than knowing where people are driving. So it might take longer than you think, but not very long.
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Also consider that things like Google intelligence will likely make there be amazing systems of "staged" cars in areas of traffic ready to help in case of disaster. The grid would know an hour before anyone entered an unpopulated area that someone was going to be there and that an emergency vehicle should exist within some range of it. The ability to gauge the entire national traffic grid and place backup cars where they are likely to be needed will do amazing things to lower cost and improve speed.
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@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender Why do you think it would still be an hour or more away though? Why wouldn't the car notice the issue, and report the issue that instant, and then that instant another vehicle that meets the existing needs of the one your in rushes out to pick you up?
You have to assume meteor accident (total destruction, zero warning.) So no way to "prep" another car other than knowing where people are driving. So it might take longer than you think, but not very long.
Yeah, something like the piston getting blown through the engine block is not something that can be accounted for. Which of course, you'd have those cases, but those are 1% of 1% break downs.
The other 99.9% of breakdowns all report to the computer built into the car already. (on dumb cars)
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@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
Also consider that things like Google intelligence will likely make there be amazing systems of "staged" cars in areas of traffic ready to help in case of disaster. The grid would know an hour before anyone entered an unpopulated area that someone was going to be there and that an emergency vehicle should exist within some range of it. The ability to gauge the entire national traffic grid and place backup cars where they are likely to be needed will do amazing things to lower cost and
improve speedtravel times .Fixed that for you
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@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender Why do you think it would still be an hour or more away though? Why wouldn't the car notice the issue, and report the issue that instant, and then that instant another vehicle that meets the existing needs of the one your in rushes out to pick you up?
You have to assume meteor accident (total destruction, zero warning.) So no way to "prep" another car other than knowing where people are driving. So it might take longer than you think, but not very long.
This, this is what I'm talking about.
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As you already said Dustin, if the car thinks it's going to fail, when it reaches a certain point of expected failure, it should go to the nearest replacement. Seems like known failures would be beyond rare on long hauls, unknown/unexpected failures are what you need to be prepared for. These are where the car will be longer off than a few mins
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When I first got my class A license, I was driving for the largest van fleet in the country. If it was possible to have an area covered with maintenance, it was. Average time to see a mechanic pull up when I broke down on the road was still 4+ hours, with one instance being 4 days (tho that was a s***storm of epic proportions.)
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A strong American cultural value is their love of their cars, which is tied to their love of freedom. I noticed this living abroad. I saw public transportation working so well in other countries, but when you talk to people in the States about it the conversation will often drift towards "well what if I want to leave work early and the rest of the car pool doesn't?" That kind of stuff. With that said, I'm one of those people that really enjoys cars.
I'm also in the camp that thinks that the government can't do anything better for less cost than the private sector. So I would be in favor of letting private companies compete in cities. I was really disappointed with Austin TX when I went down their for Spiceworld. I used AirBNB for the first time and was looking forward to Uber and found out they were kicked out of the city for the city's own system.
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Was their system bad?
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@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
Was their system bad?
It was the best you could get at the time (2002-2004).
That 4 day ordeal was a truly epic fail all around, and was the only time I was stranded for more than ~8-10 hours total. When you blow a tire right before the last weigh station in Florida, it takes some time for the replacement guy to get to you
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I don't see the ownership of private vehicles being made illegal, just financially unsound.
As for the carpool thing - yeah, that's one reason I don't want to carpool, I need more mobile freedom than that afford. But with self driving cars, you order one. Being in a city like Omaha, I shouldn't have to wait more than 10 mins at most.
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@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender Why do you think it would still be an hour or more away though? Why wouldn't the car notice the issue, and report the issue that instant, and then that instant another vehicle that meets the existing needs of the one your in rushes out to pick you up?
You have to assume meteor accident (total destruction, zero warning.) So no way to "prep" another car other than knowing where people are driving. So it might take longer than you think, but not very long.
This, this is what I'm talking about.
But how often does this kind of thing happen, especially on well maintained cars? With an autonomous fleet of cars servicing the country, you'd also be maintaining those cars just as often. And to a very high standard, as the car would dictate what gets replaced and when.
And if it doesn't pass a self-check, it doesn't continue to self drive.
The meteor hit car scenario would be an extremely low chance scenario.
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@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
I don't see the ownership of private vehicles being made illegal, just financially unsound.
As for the carpool thing - yeah, that's one reason I don't want to carpool, I need more mobile freedom than that afford. But with self driving cars, you order one. Being in a city like Omaha, I shouldn't have to wait more than 10 mins at most.
Ownership will always be fine. Now driving them, that might be a problem.
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@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
As for the carpool thing - yeah, that's one reason I don't want to carpool, I need more mobile freedom than that afford.
In the self driving, shared car world, car pools have no negative impact on mobility. That's purely a owning your own private car problem.
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@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
As for the carpool thing - yeah, that's one reason I don't want to carpool, I need more mobile freedom than that afford.
In the self driving, shared car world, car pools have no negative impact on mobility. That's purely a owning your own private car problem.
agreed.
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@Mike-Davis said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
A strong American cultural value is their love of their cars, which is tied to their love of freedom.
It's the love of the perception of freedom. Cars don't improve freedom, compared to public transportation in Europe you generally get less freedom. It's not super simple to compare, but the freedom in Europe (of movement around to places) is one of the things that I love. Getting around in the US, especially for people who like to have a drink, is far, far less free than in Europe. People like owning their own cars, but not having the level of flexibility that many other places have.
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@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@DustinB3403 said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Dashrender Why do you think it would still be an hour or more away though? Why wouldn't the car notice the issue, and report the issue that instant, and then that instant another vehicle that meets the existing needs of the one your in rushes out to pick you up?
You have to assume meteor accident (total destruction, zero warning.) So no way to "prep" another car other than knowing where people are driving. So it might take longer than you think, but not very long.
This, this is what I'm talking about.
But how often does this kind of thing happen, especially on well maintained cars? With an autonomous fleet of cars servicing the country, you'd also be maintaining those cars just as often. And to a very high standard, as the car would dictate what gets replaced and when.
And if it doesn't pass a self-check, it doesn't continue to self drive.
The meteor hit car scenario would be an extremely low chance scenario.
again, not the point.. the point was simply that the mins you mentioned several times above is easily not always the case. But Scott has already pointed out ways to help mitigate that.
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@scottalanmiller said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
@Mike-Davis said in Trump appoints Kalanick and Musk to committee:
A strong American cultural value is their love of their cars, which is tied to their love of freedom.
It's the love of the perception of freedom. Cars don't improve freedom, compared to public transportation in Europe you generally get less freedom. It's not super simple to compare, but the freedom in Europe (of movement around to places) is one of the things that I love. Getting around in the US, especially for people who like to have a drink, is far, far less free than in Europe. People like owning their own cars, but not having the level of flexibility that many other places have.
Oh, if I could ditch owning a car just to get around where I live, I'd be all about it. That'd be an instant $450/month raise, minus whatever the monthly public trans fee would be. Not that any public transit make sense around here when horses are the most commonly used form of transportation
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I just thought of another advantage to self driving taxi thing - with electric vehicles, assuming it took more than just a few mins to recharge a car, you could just get into another car at a recharge station and keep going, little to no waiting.
