Is Texas Next?
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
but you're saying that the debt amount never goes down - so the amount of interest keeps going up (unless interest rates on our debt are going down too?)
But you claim this doesn't matter because the increase in our GDP is going up at a higher rate than our loans/interest - is that what I'm to understand?
Correct. Interest rates are at an all time low right now. So borrowing now is a really good deal.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
But payments pay it off over time. That's how it works. I think you are picturing our debt as some weird, magical single lump. It is not. it is billions of small loans. I hold one loan to the US Fed for $136 for example. They owe me, but they can't pay me until I call it in. So even if they wanted to pay down the debt, they can't unless I let them (if it came to that, I would.) But that's not how it works. They pay as their loans come due AND when the loans call in the debt. So they pay off the loans as requested, every time without fail. But there are billions of loans out there. Each being paid off as it comes due.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
How's the advertising over there compared to over here, Scott? I think of of the things that drives the crime sprees here is that our advertising drives people to think they don't have enough, they aren't good enough where they are. That whole thing where companies are trying to squeeze every last cent out of the spending public.
Is that the case there?
What kind of people do you think are committing crimes? It's not middle class workers that want a new materialistic thing that they can't afford. It's people who got addicted to drugs and are feeding their demons with every item they can pawn for cash to score more drugs. Along with people who are homeless and can't even beg for enough money to pay for stuff. Push someone to the edge of desperation; have them question if they'll survive unless they harm you, and you'll see the animal inside of them.
I've noticed you mentioning homeless people before. Is that really that big of a problem over at your place? Can't really imagine that, because we have a rather powerful social system. Everyone, virtually everyone, will get some place to sleep or even some small apartment, at least the most important things (very basic things like a toothbrush, soap, towels, something to eat, clothes, ...), healthcare (or help on getting away from drugs) and this way a real chance to get back into "normal" life.
My experience as well though our system is still a baby in comparison. Currently people are camping out on the lawn of the court to protest lack of care / treatment / beds.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tent-city-victoria-1.3654094
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
but you're saying that the debt amount never goes down - so the amount of interest keeps going up (unless interest rates on our debt are going down too?)
But you claim this doesn't matter because the increase in our GDP is going up at a higher rate than our loans/interest - is that what I'm to understand?
Yes. Think of it like this...
Stock market makes you an average of 4% interest. You can borrow money for 3% interest. So what do you do?
You borrow as much as you can because you win at a 1% rate!
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
This is the idea behind Governmental Bonds right?
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
Why would you not cash your loan as soon as it's due and get another one? Do you get some kind of interest continuation if you leave the loan there?
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
This is the idea behind Governmental Bonds right?
Yup. Government bonds are the big debt that everyone talks about. And the US public is one of the largest holders of that debt. It's the government borrowing from its own people.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
Why would you not cash your loan as soon as it's due and get another one? Do you get some kind of interest continuation if you leave the loan there?
You normally should, but yes it continues to accrue at a higher rate after it has matured in most cases. It's a security and you need to look at the terms of each individual one. but in general you want to cash out and get that money into the equities market instead of in the bonds market. Bonds always hurt the lender over time. They are the riskiest form of security. Only trading experts should use them.
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Here is "SAM's Guide to Getting Ahead in Bond Trading"...
Step 1: Never Buy Them
Step 2: Sell the ones that you have the moment that they mature
Step 3: Put that money into something sensible instead -
I must agree, bonds never made sense to me.
Not when i can buy something like JnJ and get 4% dividend with some room for capital appreciation. Oh and they havent lowered their dividend since the 1940s, so it is almost as good as bond in risk factor. -
@momurda said in Is Texas Next?:
I must agree, bonds never made sense to me.
They are short term hedges against total market collapse. But even if you bought them hours before the start of the Great Depression... you would not have made out compared to stocks over less than ten years!
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@momurda said in Is Texas Next?:
Not when i can buy something like JnJ and get 4% dividend with some room for capital appreciation. Oh and they havent lowered their dividend since the 1940s, so it is almost as good as bond in risk factor.
And even that is super risky compared to the S&P 500 Index which reliably averages more than double that since way before the 1940s.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
Another reason there isn't as many homeless in the mid-west is the same reason that hitchhiking through there is virtually impossible. A study was done on HH through that region, and found that people to be picked up were much less than anywhere else, especially on the west coast (this also takes into account other variables like it being illegal). The study mostly covered if it was a legal state, are you getting picked up. Overall, people were very hesitant to let a stranger into a confined space where there was an issue with escaping the situation. If you're in a bar talking to a stranger, you could simply run out if there was trouble. But in a vehicle, they could grab the wheel, killing both of you, you'd have to fight them while you try and slow the vehicle to a stop, take your seat belt off, open your door, exit the vehicle, and shut the door to provide a barrier between you and them. That's a lot to handle in a situation that YOU put yourself in. People in the mid-west are more reserved with nomads so they typically avoid them. With a complete disregard for nomads, comes a sense of "don't travel there, nobody will pick you up or give hand outs", so the homeless and hitchhiking population goes down.
If you're somewhere like Nebraska, then home invasions and car jackings would be fairly low. It's just not a state that is prone to stuff like that because of the kind of population that is there. A lot of working class and middle class workers, overall a lot of employed individuals. When money is coming in, crime goes down.
That's my take on it anyway, FWIW.
Hitchhiking has been shown to be incredibly safe and all of that fear is just people who aren't educated. The passenger is at far more risk than the driver. They are the captives. It is nearly impossible to take over a moving car because the driver has too much control. They can crash the car at will, turn it over, go faster, slower, drive to the police station, get the cops to chase them, go the wrong way... they have too much power. Only someone with a death wish hitchhikes to threaten someone. And stats show that it simply doesn't happen.
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
Oh I completely agree. I pick up tons of people as I've hitchhiked a lot and not being picked up really sucks. I was just mentioning why there is some kind of fear for the drivers and in the mid-west why people are less likely to be picked up.
I have never been afraid of a hitchhiker because like you said, if they pulled a weapon I could just speed up well beyond dangerous limits and say "That's pretty stupid because I'll take you with me."
The driver controls the tempo so I'd be way more afraid as a hitchhiker. The driver could be a serial killer and hitchhikers can go unaccounted for since they seem to be drifters most of the time.
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Right, i was just saying bonds are dumb comjpared to even garbage stocks lock jnj. I wouldnt ever buy JnJ, just giving expample of how easy it is to beat any bond investment
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@momurda said in Is Texas Next?:
Right, i was just saying bonds are dumb comjpared to even garbage stocks lock jnj. I wouldnt ever buy JnJ, just giving expample of how easy it is to beat any bond investment
How many cities or municipalities have declared bankruptcy so far this year? Buying bonds can be even more risky than stocks if you're putting money into localities in the US.
I agree that the feds haven't ever missed a payment yet. While I hope that will continue, I lack any confidence that it will.
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@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@momurda said in Is Texas Next?:
Right, i was just saying bonds are dumb comjpared to even garbage stocks lock jnj. I wouldnt ever buy JnJ, just giving expample of how easy it is to beat any bond investment
How many cities or municipalities have declared bankruptcy so far this year? Buying bonds can be even more risky than stocks if you're putting money into localities in the US.
I agree that the feds haven't ever missed a payment yet. While I hope that will continue, I lack any confidence that it will.
People normally mean federal bonds which have never defaulted in the US. Municipal bonds pay far higher rates. Municipal bonds actually carry less risk because of the default risk... it's actually possible to play the municipal bond market and win. Not so with federal ones. Reward only exists with risk.
