Is Texas Next?
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
Greece shot itself in the foot. They had a staggering amount of international debt, something the US doesn't really have, and when they did receive a bailout, after decades of lying about their debt load to GDP (deficit), they spent it on repaying international debt instead of attempting to start a recovery at home, some of this was the EUs fault due to the terms of the bailout, but most the blame lies with Greek policy makers.
I'm not so sure how debt has anything to do with the UK's current and future issues. Anything that happens in the near term, and long term, will most likely be a result of the Brexit vote.
I'm not an expert on EU politics or economy. I'm sure others (@scottalanmiller or @thwr) will correct me on the points I got incorrect.
The US on the other hand has seen month over month economic growth for, I want to say, the last two or three years, at the same time our debt load as a percent of GDP, which is arguably more important then overall debt, has been going down steadily since 2009. We're not in as dire straights as the media and politicians will have you believe.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
Another reason there isn't as many homeless in the mid-west is the same reason that hitchhiking through there is virtually impossible. A study was done on HH through that region, and found that people to be picked up were much less than anywhere else, especially on the west coast (this also takes into account other variables like it being illegal). The study mostly covered if it was a legal state, are you getting picked up. Overall, people were very hesitant to let a stranger into a confined space where there was an issue with escaping the situation. If you're in a bar talking to a stranger, you could simply run out if there was trouble. But in a vehicle, they could grab the wheel, killing both of you, you'd have to fight them while you try and slow the vehicle to a stop, take your seat belt off, open your door, exit the vehicle, and shut the door to provide a barrier between you and them. That's a lot to handle in a situation that YOU put yourself in. People in the mid-west are more reserved with nomads so they typically avoid them. With a complete disregard for nomads, comes a sense of "don't travel there, nobody will pick you up or give hand outs", so the homeless and hitchhiking population goes down.
If you're somewhere like Nebraska, then home invasions and car jackings would be fairly low. It's just not a state that is prone to stuff like that because of the kind of population that is there. A lot of working class and middle class workers, overall a lot of employed individuals. When money is coming in, crime goes down.
That's my take on it anyway, FWIW.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
I knew that the USA got a next to non-existing social system and that there are...
That stuff is super misleading, though. There are definitely desperate homeless all over wondering how they will eat. But having lived in Newark and getting to know the majority that lived near me including often taking them out to eat and hanging out in the park with them... they actually pitied me as the rich Wall St. worker who had to actually work every day. They said that they felt that their lives were way better than mine.
So it is all perspective. They didn't see themselves as missing out, they felt that they were making a smart choice to not have to do a job that they didn't like just to have things that they didn't need (like shelter beyond a sleeping bag or whatever.) It was a conscious decision in many cases.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
I knew that the USA got a next to non-existing social system and that there are...
That stuff is super misleading, though. There are definitely desperate homeless all over wondering how they will eat. But having lived in Newark and getting to know the majority that lived near me including often taking them out to eat and hanging out in the park with them... they actually pitied me as the rich Wall St. worker who had to actually work every day. They said that they felt that their lives were way better than mine.
So it is all perspective. They didn't see themselves as missing out, they felt that they were making a smart choice to not have to do a job that they didn't like just to have things that they didn't need (like shelter beyond a sleeping bag or whatever.) It was a conscious decision in many cases.
Like I said before, some may have chossen that path. Most did not, I guess.
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Yes, it is very much an American thing to be fixated on national debt. The US has that debt intentionally, not accidentally. It is there for strategic economic reasons.
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@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@travisdh1 said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr The bad part seems to be that the government took over responsibility for taking care of people that fall into that situation. This is the same government that's currently 19 trillion (US dollars) in the hole. History is not kind to anyone that puts themselves in this same situation.
I always find it funny that the only people who are really worried about national debt, which is significantly different then personal debt, are politicians. Most economics, there are several organizations that I've read similar statements to, seem to agree that national debt isn't something to worry about until you reach a specific threshold. The cost of managing the debt and paying it down is more expensive then letting it go and letting the economy do its thing. Their reasoning is that, traditionally - in almost all cases, the economy will grow faster then the debt incurred.
The fiscally responsible thing is generally to not worry about spending on debt, but instead spend on infrastructure which has a significantly higher rate of return.
Right, that's the "new" way of thinking. If we actually put that money into infrastructure it might even work. Please don't get me started on the state of our infrastructure!
It's not the "new" way, it is the only way until politicians started marketing the debt as a fear tactic to non-economists. The idea that debt was good was established in the first years of our country under Hamilton and it has been a huge part of what has empowered the American economy for centuries. It's only new to let the general public think about it and attempt to undermine the guiding hand of the central bank.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
Like I said before, some may have chossen that path. Most did not, I guess.
From my small anecdotal evidence... nearly all chose the path. In a country with jobs available, there aren't too many that are homeless without options. Not saying that our social support system isn't lacking, but we do have support systems for this and they do tend to work. My MIL is in that job role and they don't let people go homeless that don't want to be.
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@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
From what I've been reading in this thread, the system itself seems to be failing over at your place. Or it doesn't exist at all. That isn't something new, I was just shocked by the sheer numbers. We got our own problems here, sure, but nothing compareable to homeless people raiding your home to get some food, out of desperation.
Again - I'm probably just completely blind to this, but people breaking into homes, etc out of desperation is not something I'm really aware of, at least in the middle of the USA. I personally believe that most homeless are there because they choose to be. There are a great number of programs to help the less fortunate. Some publicly provided (i.e. government) and many private charities that help people out.
Another reason there isn't as many homeless in the mid-west is the same reason that hitchhiking through there is virtually impossible. A study was done on HH through that region, and found that people to be picked up were much less than anywhere else, especially on the west coast (this also takes into account other variables like it being illegal). The study mostly covered if it was a legal state, are you getting picked up. Overall, people were very hesitant to let a stranger into a confined space where there was an issue with escaping the situation. If you're in a bar talking to a stranger, you could simply run out if there was trouble. But in a vehicle, they could grab the wheel, killing both of you, you'd have to fight them while you try and slow the vehicle to a stop, take your seat belt off, open your door, exit the vehicle, and shut the door to provide a barrier between you and them. That's a lot to handle in a situation that YOU put yourself in. People in the mid-west are more reserved with nomads so they typically avoid them. With a complete disregard for nomads, comes a sense of "don't travel there, nobody will pick you up or give hand outs", so the homeless and hitchhiking population goes down.
If you're somewhere like Nebraska, then home invasions and car jackings would be fairly low. It's just not a state that is prone to stuff like that because of the kind of population that is there. A lot of working class and middle class workers, overall a lot of employed individuals. When money is coming in, crime goes down.
That's my take on it anyway, FWIW.
Hitchhiking has been shown to be incredibly safe and all of that fear is just people who aren't educated. The passenger is at far more risk than the driver. They are the captives. It is nearly impossible to take over a moving car because the driver has too much control. They can crash the car at will, turn it over, go faster, slower, drive to the police station, get the cops to chase them, go the wrong way... they have too much power. Only someone with a death wish hitchhikes to threaten someone. And stats show that it simply doesn't happen.
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
The previously discussed thinking differences makes it much more likely to be safe in Europe than in the US, at least in first world Europe.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
I pick up hitchhikers whenever I can, I've never heard of anyone having incurred any risk. I've done many thousands of miles with hitchhikers in the car, never worried once. And in Europe it's done absolutely everywhere, every day and is totally safe.
The previously discussed thinking differences makes it much more likely to be safe in Europe than in the US, at least in first world Europe.
Yes but I only pick them up in the US. Europe is safer, but the US is 100% safe (check the stats, it's actually something like 100%.) In Europe I always have a full car. In the US I am often empty.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
Paying our debt is actually a mandatory line item in the budget. Much like Social Security and Medicare. That is why the deficit is much more important then the total debt we accumulate.
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@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
but you're saying that the debt amount never goes down - so the amount of interest keeps going up (unless interest rates on our debt are going down too?)
But you claim this doesn't matter because the increase in our GDP is going up at a higher rate than our loans/interest - is that what I'm to understand?
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
but you're saying that the debt amount never goes down - so the amount of interest keeps going up (unless interest rates on our debt are going down too?)
But you claim this doesn't matter because the increase in our GDP is going up at a higher rate than our loans/interest - is that what I'm to understand?
Correct. Interest rates are at an all time low right now. So borrowing now is a really good deal.
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
But payments pay it off over time. That's how it works. I think you are picturing our debt as some weird, magical single lump. It is not. it is billions of small loans. I hold one loan to the US Fed for $136 for example. They owe me, but they can't pay me until I call it in. So even if they wanted to pay down the debt, they can't unless I let them (if it came to that, I would.) But that's not how it works. They pay as their loans come due AND when the loans call in the debt. So they pay off the loans as requested, every time without fail. But there are billions of loans out there. Each being paid off as it comes due.
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@thwr said in Is Texas Next?:
@BBigford said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
How's the advertising over there compared to over here, Scott? I think of of the things that drives the crime sprees here is that our advertising drives people to think they don't have enough, they aren't good enough where they are. That whole thing where companies are trying to squeeze every last cent out of the spending public.
Is that the case there?
What kind of people do you think are committing crimes? It's not middle class workers that want a new materialistic thing that they can't afford. It's people who got addicted to drugs and are feeding their demons with every item they can pawn for cash to score more drugs. Along with people who are homeless and can't even beg for enough money to pay for stuff. Push someone to the edge of desperation; have them question if they'll survive unless they harm you, and you'll see the animal inside of them.
I've noticed you mentioning homeless people before. Is that really that big of a problem over at your place? Can't really imagine that, because we have a rather powerful social system. Everyone, virtually everyone, will get some place to sleep or even some small apartment, at least the most important things (very basic things like a toothbrush, soap, towels, something to eat, clothes, ...), healthcare (or help on getting away from drugs) and this way a real chance to get back into "normal" life.
My experience as well though our system is still a baby in comparison. Currently people are camping out on the lawn of the court to protest lack of care / treatment / beds.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/tent-city-victoria-1.3654094
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@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
but you're saying that the debt amount never goes down - so the amount of interest keeps going up (unless interest rates on our debt are going down too?)
But you claim this doesn't matter because the increase in our GDP is going up at a higher rate than our loans/interest - is that what I'm to understand?
Yes. Think of it like this...
Stock market makes you an average of 4% interest. You can borrow money for 3% interest. So what do you do?
You borrow as much as you can because you win at a 1% rate!
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@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@scottalanmiller said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
@coliver said in Is Texas Next?:
@Dashrender said in Is Texas Next?:
I also don't understand the infinitely growing economy belief either.
I'm not sure I buy it either but we don't have much evidence of a limitation on growth. At least not that I am aware.
Sure, but we sure have evidence of stalls, and stalls can kill us too.
We also have evidence that governmental spending can and does get us out of stalls much quicker then just letting the economy recover on its own.
I wonder to what detriment? If we never pay the loans back, then eventually we end up where Greece is, where the UK is close to, and frankly where we are today.
But we always pay back the loans, that's why we are the opposite of Greece. We never default and we keep our credit rating pristine (unlike Greece and the UK who now can't borrow without paying extra... like missing credit card payments month after month.)
I don't know why you don't think that we pay back our loans. The US never, ever misses a payment. Ever. In fact, literally five minutes ago, my dad checked on my oldest loan to the US Fed! What timing. I've not checked on it in 40 years!!
Making a payment isn't the same as paying it off.
That's the whole point of a loan though. Paying for a large sum of money over a long period of time.
The Fed has many kinds of loans, but what they actually do is do tons and tons of tiny loans that all come due at different times. So unlike a traditional personal loan which has interest and a schedule with monthly dues, the Fed normally borrows X today and agrees to pay you Y in five years. There is only one due date and only one repayment made. But they do this to tons and tons of people so it acts like a monthly payment when spread out.
